Journal of Political Economy(February 2011)
书刊 · 2011-03-29
返回Using factor methods, we decompose industrial production (IP) into components arising from aggregate and sector-specific shocks. An approximate factor model finds that nearly all of IP variability is associated with common factors. We then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of input-output linkages in the factor analysis. Thus, a structural factor analysis indicates that the Great Moderation was characterized by a fall in the importance of aggregate shocks while the volatility of sectoral shocks was essentially unchanged. Consequently, the role of idiosyncratic shocks increased considerably after the mid-1980s, explaining half of the quarterly variation in IP.
Abstract
We present results from a randomized evaluation of a teacher performance pay program implemented across a large representative sample of government-run rural primary schools in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. At the end of 2 years of the program, students in incentive schools performed significantly better than those in control schools by 0.27 and 0.17 standard deviations in math and language tests, respectively. We find no evidence of any adverse consequences of the program. The program was highly cost effective, and incentive schools performed significantly better than other randomly chosen schools that received additional schooling inputs of a similar value.
Abstract
We argue that the government-spending multiplier can be much larger than one when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds. The larger the fraction of government spending that occurs while the nominal interest rate is zero, the larger the value of the multiplier. After providing intuition for these results, we investigate the size of the multiplier in a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model. In this model the multiplier effect is substantially larger than one when the zero bound binds. Our model is consistent with the behavior of key macro aggregates during the recent financial crisis.
I suggest a novel theory of GATT/WTO negotiations based on Krugman’s “new trade” model. It emphasizes international production relocations and is easy to calibrate to bilateral trade data. Focusing on the major players in recent GATT/WTO negotiations, I find that it implies reasonable noncooperative tariffs as well as moderate gains from GATT/WTO negotiations.
Abstract
Andrew T. Foerster, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, Mark W. Watson
DOI: 10.1086/659311
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/659311
Teacher Performance Pay: Experimental Evidence from India(pp. 39-77)
Karthik Muralidharan, Venkatesh Sundararaman
DOI: 10.1086/659655
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/659655
When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?(pp. 78-121)
Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo
DOI: 10.1086/659312
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/659312
A “New Trade” Theory of GATT/WTO Negotiations(pp. 122-152)
Ralph Ossa
DOI: 10.1086/659371
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/659371
Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate(pp. 153-181)
Riccardo Colacito, Mariano M. Croce
DOI: 10.1086/659238
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/659238
Journal of Political Economy(p. Inside Back Cover)
DOI: 10.1086/660087
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/660087
Rolling Stones Down the Laffer Curve(p. Back Cover)
Suggested by Gordon Hansen
DOI: 10.1086/660088
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/660088