宋铮：中国式增长

Growing like China
Zheng Song

Abstract

China has been growing at a high rate and has at the same time accumulated a stag-gering foreign surplus. We constructs a theory that explain these seemingly puzzling ob-servations, while being consistent with salient features of the Chinese growth experience since 1992: high output growth, sustained returns on capital investments, extensive real-location within the manufacturing sector, falling labor share and accumulation of a large foreign surplus. The theory makes only minimal deviations from a neoclassical growth model. Its building blocks are nancial imperfections and reallocation among rms with heterogeneous productivity. Some rms use more productive technologies than others, but
low-productivity rms survive because of better access to credit markets. Due to the -nancial imperfections, high-productivity rms –which are run by entrepreneurs –must be nanced out of internal savings. If these savings are su¢ ciently large, the high-productivity sector outgrows the low-productivity sector, and attracts an increasing employment share.During the transition, low wage growth sustains the return to capital. The downsizing of the nancially integrated sector forces a growing share of domestic savings to be invested in foreign assets, generating a foreign surplus. We test some auxiliary implications of the theory and nd robust empirical support.

Keywords: China, Economic Growth, Entrepreneurs, Financial Market Imperfections, Foreign Surplus, Investment, Loans, Productivity Heterogeneity, Rate of Return on Capital, Reallocation, State-Owned Firms.

复旦宋铮《中国式增长》.pdf